Super Bowl Millionaire

Entry 1:

I’m going to start by saying that I think the Chiefs will thrash the Bucs, if you think the opposite you should load up on Bucs because chances are their ownerships will be low. Since the Chiefs defense has scored fewer points on the season than the Buccaneers, which gives them a lower-cost defense to the FanDuel algorithm. The whole season doesn’t take into context this specific game. The Chiefs have a fantastic pass defense, but they can struggle to stop the run. The more the Chiefs score, and get out ahead, the less of a chance that the Buccaneers. It’s unlikely that either team will try to heavily incorporate their running backs into their gamescript, if anything the Bucs will use Fournette to mix up the play calling and try to protect Brady, but in goal-line situations, it’s more likely that these teams look for one on one coverage on their tight end, or throw a fade to the corner than hand the ball off. If both teams are passing the ball, then I expect more picks from Brady which would lead to more points for the Chiefs, etc.

We also have Mahomes and his two primary (only) weapons, meaning this lineup represents about 80% of the Kansas City Offence.

Putting the Chiefs defense as our captain puts us in a tough position. If the Chiefs shut down Tampa Bay, then they could easily start to transition to their running back to run the clock out. If either team starts to rely on their running backs in this game then it will net our roster negative value, because not only would it provide us with zero points but it also represents points for our opponents.

Evans is in the lineup because he’s the most likely player on the Buccaneers to score a touchdown. That being said, I expect the Bucs to use all of their weapons today, distributing out the touches between AB, Godwin, Evans, Miller, Gronk, and Johnson.

Lineup 2:

Gronkowski and Brady have a connection, not only on the football field but off of it as well. This is more narrative-driven than I would like to be, but I envision that Brady and Gronk have been talking about showing out together in the Super Bowl since Gronk joined the Bucs. If Gronk has a 100+ yard game it would restore his legacy from his injury hindered performance of two years prior.

Gronk’s price as a captain only increases by $1,000 as well, whereas putting Hill as your Captain costs you an extra $2,000 and is sure to be everyone’s first idea. By taking the risk on Gronk, it opens up more money for the rest of your roster.