NFL $5M Fantasy Football Millionare
I've prepared six lineups for this weekend, mostly by cycling through the same couple in names in different combinations. All the Lineups are listed below, if you’re not interested in understanding the philosophy behind why I choose the players that I did, you can just scroll past the analysis.
Mac Jones
Price on DraftKings: $4,400
Jones is cheaper than backups like Jordan Love and Drew Lock. This is most likely because they opened up in week 1 before Mac Jones was declared as the starter, as Cam Newton is priced at $5,400. Jones is $2,000+ cheaper than most starters and 4k cheaper than Patrick Mahomes ($9,400). Even with a mediocre performance, the money saved by playing Mac allows for better roster construction and a more consistent floor.
James Robinson
Price on DraftKings: $6,400
Someone at Draftkings didn't get the memo that Travis Etienne is out for the season. Priced near Chris Carson and Myles Gaskin, underneath players like Miles Sanders and D'Andre Swift. Robinson will have a larger target share than any of these guys, plus the Jaguars are facing the Texans this week, which should be the easiest matchup in the league. Jaguars should get ahead, run the clock out, with 80%+ of those carries going to Robinson. The jags ran the football at the lowest clip of the entire league last year, even with Trevor Lawrence vulturing touchdowns in the red zone and some lost carries to Carlos Hyde, Robinson’s workload should equal that of last year.
Christian McCaffery
Price on DraftKings: $9,500
CMC is normally 10k+. I will eat up any discount on one of the greatest fantasy football players to ever exist. It’s Darnold’s first week with the team, so I think the team will learn on CMC to help exorcise any ghosts that might arise into Darnold’s vision. The more they can lean on play-action, screens, short throws, and the ground game, the safer Darnold will feel in the pocket.
Joe Mixon:
Price on DraftKings: $6,200
I'm not the biggest Joe Mixon fan. I believe that injuries have hurt his explosiveness over the course of his career, often leading to entire drives of inefficient carries. With that being said, his upside is hard to ignore. With the departure of Giovanni Bernard, he assumably has the backfield to himself. Mixon should see 20+ touches in his first game against the Vikings, as the Bengals lean on the run game to help ease one knee Joey B.
Aaron Jones
Price on DraftKings: $6,200
Jones is the opposite of Mixon to me. He's the personification of explosiveness, any time he touches the ball he has the ability to find himself in the endzone. If the Saints’ defense should prove difficult for the Packers to score against, Jones will see a ton of dump-offs. If the packers lead in a big fashion, Jones should see an increased workload.
Stephon Diggs
Price on DraftKings: $7,600
Pleading Diggs' case is simple. He’s a top 5 receiver that received a bump down in cost after being hampered with an ankle injury for weeks. There were questions about Diggs' ability to play week 1. DraftKings hedged their bet against Diggs showcasing his talents by dropping the price. It’s a little convoluted, but by making Diggs cheaper, you gut lineups that include Diggs should he miss time. Because, as people look to replace Diggs in their lineups, they will quickly release that the players underneath him don’t possess nearly the upside that Diggs does.
None of this matters, however, as Diggs is playing in week 1. It’s a free discount for anyone willing to bet on Josh Allen’s performance against the Steelers, which is assumed to be the best defense in the league.
Corey Davis
Price on DraftKings: $4,900
Davis is the Jet’ WR1 until Elijah Moore grows to a point where he can usurp Davis as King of the Hill. As it stands, Davis has already established chemistry with rookie quarterback Zach Wilson during their short preseason stint. Wilson was locked on Davis nearly every play that the two shared the field together. And now, Jamison Crowder, the Jets #2 receiving threat, is missing this game to Covid protocols. Davis should have 10+ targets and a good chunk of the valuable receiving work. I believe that Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson will rain hell down on the Jets in their first revenge game against the organization that helped to establish their careers. It would be very surprising to me if the Jets were able to beat the Panthers with a rookie QB, and completely new staff. This all leads me to believe that Davis is the best receiving value on this week’s slate.
Brandin Cooks
Price on DraftKings: $5,300
Perennially doubted, and yet always succeeding, Cooks is scheme-proof. Cooks was productive with the Saints, Patriots, Rams, and Texans, but each year the goal post move further. After leaving the Saints, there were doubts about Cooks’ ability to succeed under Brady and the Patriot’s run-heavy offense. He balled out. Everyone was concerned when he went to the Rams, as Cooper Kupp and Robert woods threatened to steal all the valuable touches in the offense. Last year, he joined the Texans, and everyone was scared because the team looked bad. He balled out. Cooks has been a top 15 receiver three out of the past four seasons, and while yes, losing Deshaun Watson hurts his ability to maintain that streak. He’s still prime to finish as a top 25 option.
The Texans are probably going to get killed most games, forcing Tyrod to throw them back into the scoring distance. Last year’s worst team in the NFL, the Jaguars, ran the ball less than any team for this same reason. They would fall behind too quickly to reliably depend on the ground game, forcing them to spend 3+ quarters trying to throw bombs so that the end score wouldn’t be as embarrassing as it currently was.
Lineup 1:
Lineup 2:
Lineup 3:
Lineup 4:
Lineup 5:
Lineup 6:
You can always reach out to me if you have any questions. You can scroll to the top right to find the kicktosscatch social media pages, or you can email me at kicktosscatch@gmail.com. Thanks for reading!
