Tussling with the Thursday Million
Results from the Monday Million:
All of Justin Herbert's main targets thus far are out or questionable coming into this game. That being Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. When a running back misses time, it's easy to project who going to take the workload they left behind. If Dalvin Cook is out, we know that the Vikings are going to give most of those carries to Alexander Mattison and a couple to Ameer Abdullah. Unfortunately, when a wide receiver gets hurt it’s almost impossible to figure out where the targets will go in their wake. Therefore, diversifying your Chargers is key.
The other thing we have to figure out this week is how much each team is going to lean on their quarterback. Both teams have all star running backs that are returning from injury, and a talented committee behind those running backs. So it still remains to be seen how these two AFC West teams will deploy their offensive weapons.
Thursday Million Lineup 1:
Contested Game with Lots of Passing.
Austin Ekeler: With Mike Williams out and Keenan Allen limited I expect this to be Ekeler heavy game script for Anthony Lynn. Ekeler doesn't need to run the ball to be justified in your line up. Ekeler lead the Chargers in carries (15) and targets (9) last week against the Atlanta Falcons. The Raiders are missing a lot of their main contributors on defense. Johnathan Abrams(SS), Damon Arnette(CB), Clelin Ferrell(DE), and Nicholas Morrow(LB) freeing up Ekeler to tire out the opposing front seven.
Josh Jacobs: My only concern with Jacobs is the running backs behind him. Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard are both really good. Josh Jacobs had his carries reduced last week coming off an ankle injury. Jacobs is too good in the redzone for me to fade. Jacobs is the only running back outside of Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook to be top 6 in redzone attempts, yards and touchdowns.
source: https://www.lineups.com/nfl-redzone-stats
Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow hasn’t been as productive but he’s only seen two less targets than Agholor on the season. In Ruggs absence, he could be involved more in the game script this week over Agholor or Waller. Renfrow’s ceiling is about 80 yards and a touchdown, so if you’re looking for upside I would go elsewhere.
Derek Carr: Carr has looked better in primetime game this year than he has any other game so far. Derek Carr has thrown the ball 45 and 47 times in the past two week. While that isn’t a pace that could be sustainable for any quarterback, if the Raiders fall behind in this game Jon Gruden won’t be thinking about Derek Carr’s arm. This is a much win divisional game for the Raiders. If they’re losing or the running game proves to be ineffective then it’s on Carr to win the game.
Tyron Johnson: Tyron hasn’t seen much play so there isn’t much to say about him that isn’t already said by his stats on the season.
Thursday Million Lineup 2:
Quarterbacks go unutilized as both teams run the ball.
Nelson Agholor: Agholor has had a connection with Carr all season. He saw 4 redzone targets last week, but they were also getting blown out by the Colts, giving the Raiders offense more opportunities to have the ball. Nelson is the number one wide receiver in Las Vegas, but he’s received half as many targets (64) on the year as The Baller Darren Waller(118). Between the two however you’re taking 36.3% of the Raiders target share on the season.
Darren Waller: Waller has 117 targets on 13 games, meaning that the baller is averaging a cool 9 targets a game. 117 is the amount of targets that Waller saw last year in 16 games. That means his average last year was 7.3 targets per game. In every game that Waller has seen 10+ targets he's produced, except interestingly enough in his last game against the Chargers. I don’t believe that to be a sign of things to come for tonight, but it is interesting to note.
Hunter Henry: With all of Herbert's main targets coming into the game hampered, Henry should become a boon to Herbert in the redzone. Henry has never had any wiggle or been able to break tackled but he can catch the ball in the endzone.
source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WallDa01.htm
Thursday Million Lineup 3:
The Raiders show out against a weakened Chargers Offense.
Jalen Richard: Richard is a sneaky pick that I wanted to put in at least one lineup. Richard showed flashes in the passing game last week for Las Vegas. Richard’s passing upside is gamescript proof, as he can be produce when the Raiders are ahead or behind. You could replace Richard with Booker if you don’t believe that he’ll see enough targets in this game to produce.
