This game will probably suck
Outside of the game’s low projected over/under, neither of these teams have enough depth at their skill positions to offer varied lineups for showdown. The Texans were already looking sorry before suffering a myriad of injuries, including quarterback Tyrod Taylor suffered a soft-tissue injury before halftime. Tyrod will most likely remain sidelined for the next couple of weeks, leaving the job to rookie Davis Mills.
A little backstory on Mills. The Texans were at a crossroad with their quarterback situation at the start of this offseason. Their previous face of the franchise, Deshaun Watson, has been accused of sexual assault. Since then, 20+ women have come out against Watson. The Texans knew that they weren’t going to be able to get Watson to play this season. That brings us to Mills. The Texans’s had the third pick of the third round. It was the first selection of the 2020 draft as previous head coach and GM Bill O’Brien had pissed away their first two picks in lopsided trades leading up to the draft.
The Texans were dead set on Kellen Mond, a developmental prospect who showed improvement during each of his stints as the leader of Texas A&M’s offense. The Texans had no backup plan if Mond was taken. A bold strategy that completely backfired on them when the Minnesota Vikings took Mond one pick before them. The whole organization panicked. We can only imagine how much scrambling was taking place inside their war room as they had only a few minutes to figure out what to do next. They choose Davis Mills.
Mills wasn’t nearly the prospect that Mond was during his time at college, and his inconsistency lead most people to believe he would fall much later in the draft. A reality we still probably could have been in had the Vikings not sniped the Texan’s front office. Mills did little to prove the doubters (me) wrong in his first NFL appearance last week. Completing 8/18 of his passes for 103 yards, an interception, a fumble, and a touchdown.
Mills was never meant to start this early, or possibly ever. The Texans only selected him because he was a quarterback, and they needed a quarterback. Don’t let the increased price of the Panther’s defense scare you, and don’t let the discount on Mills intrigue you. It’s a trap designed by “big sportsbook” to bleed you of your hard-earned cash!
Today’s Lineup:
Panthers’ Defense: As specified above, Mills is terrible. The Panthers’ have had impressive performances against both the Jets and Saints. This will be their easiest matchup yet, with an inexperienced and inconsistent rookie behind center. The running game won’t offer much support for the developing quarterback, as the team’s committee of backs has proven to be inefficient on the ground. Something that most people suspected before they even stepped on the field. There isn’t much going for the Texans outside of the pure volume. They will get a lot of opportunities because they are behind, and they will continue to do little with each opportunity afforded. I’m all in the Panther’s defense. Mills was on track to turn the ball over four times, and that was when the opposing team didn’t have time to study his game the week before.
Christian McCaffery: You’re probably wondering why CMC isn’t my captain. Firstly, CMC is $7,000 more expensive in the captain’s spot whereas the Panthers’ defense only increases by $3,100. By not putting CMC in the captain’s spot, we’re theoretically able to increase the floor of the rest of the lineup with the money we saved. Secondly, CMC is too obvious for a small fry like me to profit. His captain ownership will be 40-50%, and to be able to money you need to make it into the top 10%~. This means that guessing right on CMC would only be half the battle, as you would also have to figure out who the next top four producers will be in order to secure a top spot. With all that being said, I expect the Panthers to win handily, and that gamescript implies a heavy reliance on the run late in the game. The question isn’t, “Will CMC have a good game”, but rather, “Will CMC leave no alternatives".
Sam Darnold: I’m not expecting a big performance out of Darnold tonight. The Panthers’ will be too far ahead to throw the ball. A lot of the players on today’s slate are either overpriced, undertalented, or inconsistent. Darnold just offers that 15+ point floor that quarterbacks that aren’t named Davis Mills can achieve in their sleep.
Mark Ingram: Ingram is currently fifth in the league in carries/attempts with 40. He’s been incredibly inefficient on the ground. With Ingram’s advanced age, it’s hard to know how much longer he can sustain that level of workload. The Texans will probably try to run the ball early to ease Mills into the game, but the Texans have also shown a propensity to run the ball in games where they are behind. A terrible strategy if you’re trying to win football games, but an excellent one if you’re just trying to get them over with as quickly as possible.
Dan Arnold: Arnold showed promise in Arizona, The Panthers’ acquisition of him in the offseason was their admittance that things had not been working with Ian Thomas. His usage increased slightly in his second week, a trend that could continue as he learns the offense. I don’t believe the Panthers would have made a bid for Arnold if they didn’t have a plan for him, or had no interest in expanding the tight ends role in their offense. I’m not sure when, or if Arnold will see an influx of carries. CMC, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson will all get theirs before Darnold even begins to look Arnold’s way.
Joey Slye: Slye could easily end this game as the leading scorer for the Texans. Not only will the team spend most of their time outside of the red zone, but this is also a revenge game for Slye who was just recently cut by the Panthers. It’s not often that we see revenge games for kickers, so there aren’t any data points to support the idea that they will have increased performance. I just refuse to bet against an angry foot.
