Tautological Thursdays
I hope there’s no need for an exchange of pleasantries after our extended absence from bone-crushing action, and each other. More importantly, with how quickly tonight’s game will ignite the NFL season, we may not have time.
Tonights Slate:
The Bill and Rams project to be offensive powerhouses with stud QBs, top-flight WRs, and a lackluster running game. Allen often supplants his backfield as the team’s leading rusher, whereas Stafford relies on Sean McVay’s west coast rushing scheme to eke out incremental gains. These are pass-first teams, proven by their offensive formation percentages last year, as they both were leading the league in 11 personnel (3WR), and although the Rams run out of 11 personnel more than any other team, their rushing attack finished as the eighth worst in the league. This was the idea behind avoiding running backs altogether.
Weaknesses (ways we lose):
Firstly, Cooper Kupp will be in the captain spot of a lot of rosters. His high exposure and price point leave some room for hedging, but if he’s the number one fantasy option on the day, we’ll be up there with everyone else.
Secondly, if the Bills crush the Rams, targeting tertiary options (Gabriel Davis, Jamison Crowder, Dawson Knox). Not only will we lose out on points from Diggs, but the game script will change to being more run-heavy, making us lose further points to Singletary, Cook, and Moss.
Lineup:
Cooper Kupp: Putting Kupp in the captain slot increases his price by $6,400, whereas, diggs’ price only increases by $4,100. That $1,900 difference is important as it represents nearly 4% of your total budget. That may not seem like a lot, but it can constitute a severe limitation of your player’s range of outcomes. Kupp’s dominance last season makes him too enticing to put anywhere else, but there may be some edges lost to other rosters who avoid Kupp altogether.
Josh Allen: The QB1 for the past two years, Allen is sure to be on the radar of anyone who turns on the app. His rushing floor is too hard to ignore, especially with the lack of goal-line talent in his backfield. Their struggles have been his gain on the ground, but he’s equally, if not more talented in the air. Allen’s arm strength is nearly unmatched, allowing him to hit all of his crossers, even when he’s out of phase or off timing. Simply put, he’s the best quarterback on the field.
Stefon Diggs: Diggs has proven himself to be a top-five wide receiver ever since departing Minnesota in 2020. A blow that Vikings fans don’t feel because of his immediate replacement, and fellow top-five wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Diggs should see a lot of tough coverage from Ramsey, the best defensive back in the league, but Diggs is talented enough to find his spots and take advantage of them.
Allen Robinson: Robinson had a shaky 2021 season, causing a lot of concern in his 2022 season. But from those in the know in Chicago, Robinson was unhappy with his time as Bear as purposely sandbagged his performance in Soldier field. Is this true? Who can say, but the Rams certainly took advantage of his falling profile. Robinson was a top 15 WR for the past three years, with the narrative being that he’s a talented WR who’s never had a QB to match. Now, that he’s paired with Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford, he should be a fine replacement for Robert Woods in the heaviest passing offense in the league.
Isaiah McKenzie: He was the best option with my remaining budget. He’s listed as the WR 3 on the Bills’ depth chart behind Gabrel Davis. Unlikely to score a large number of points.
Ben Skowronek: With Van Jefferson out week 1 with a knee injury, Ben steps as the WR 3 for the evening. Once again, the Rams’ passing volume is encouraging to me, and Ben’s extremely low price of $1800 allowed us to spend up at other positions.